Category: Megatrends

Understanding the megatrends of our society is the starting point of figuring out how to move toward the future

  • Are social media good or bad? Time to make your personal call!

    Are social media good or bad? Time to make your personal call!

    As all technology also social media can be put to both good and bad

    With the significant impact of social media where they also becomes a filter in our social interaction with others I think important to reflect upon how we consume and handle social medias.

    Are social media bad?

    If you want to read more on the subject a good start is Humanetech a nonprofit organization that has both some really good analysis on the issues with social medias and a number of concrete proposals for Human centered Technology. You will be greeted on their homepage with the title:

    “Our society is being hijacked by technology”

    http://humanetech.com/

    Interestingly enough is that when i search on google for “Social media positive effects” I get around 35 million hits. Going through the first 3 pages of hits more than half of them are actually not positive but rather balanced and labeled  “Positive and Negative Effects of Social Media”. When I search for “Social media addiction”  I get  72 million hits and very few on the first pages are balanced ergo they have a negative or alarmist angle. So in conclusion we have twice as many hits that Social media are bad than that they are good

    I have also an impression (that I intend to research another time) that there is a growing movement against the negative effects of the dominant social media platforms.  I think part of Georg Soros conversation at World Economic Forum in Davos is a good illustration of this kind of allegations:

     

    “I want to spend the bulk of my remaining time on another global problem: the rise and monopolistic behavior of the giant IT platform companies. These companies have often played an innovative and liberating role. But as Facebook and Google have grown into ever more powerful monopolies, they have become obstacles to innovation, and they have caused a variety of problems of which we are only now beginning to become aware.”

     

    If you can not bother to listen to the 45 min conversation I think Business insider has done a very good analysis out of his conversation. Please note I am not endorsing this kind of allegations as I have not made up my mind yet so above quote is just used as illustrative example for that kind of movement

    Model for reflection

    If a topic feel complex and overwhelming my brain has a tendency to try to simplify as far as possible and hence I came up with this simple model  on what scenarios we have ahead of us that could also be used on a personal level

    If you have not heard about Netocraty I strongly suggest you get onto the subject. Netocracy is predict a future new ruling class from two philosophers that so far has had a lot of accurate prediction already back at Y2K

    I use the model above as a simple way to analyze where something (an app, a social media platform,  a business idea, etc) that picks my attention ends up in the quadrant. If it is not clearly green I avoid it as far as I can

    My reflection using the model

    Let me apply the model on my consumption of social media as an illustration of what you can do already now

    On a personal level some +10 years ago when I read the Terms and Conditions while singing up for Facebook where you give them the rights to any material and pictures I thought it was a scam and aborted to sign up. A decision I have not regretted and while typing this post realize that from having been considered an odd person not being on the digital grid, more and more people envy that stance. I assume that is partly due to the above movement that social media are bad. Still today Facebook would clearly end up in the personal negative quadrant as I have very little need for likes or the grapevine of people I long time obviously dropped out with. For my close friend I prefer more private channels such as the phone, mail or direct messenger. For business contacts I very much prefer LinkedIn.

    I have tried Instagram and Twitter but as I prefer loooong reflective text they do not do the trick at all but we are all different so for my mother Instagram has largely replaced her consumption of soap operas.

    Even for this site it was a researched and conscious decision  to have full control of my publishing platform and not depend on other platforms terms and condition, their formating choices nor any screening on the content. I also wanted you as a reader to be able to read without distracting advertising.

    With the latest worse of the bad deepfakes (link to Mashable that explains it well) where with a set of pictures of a person you can get faced swap into any kind of movie (mostly with a target to produce adult material) I am so grateful my teenager has learned the family many year ago how to make sure your posted pictures on social media are not face recognisable. I am also very happy I have taken the fight with every of my children´s childcare and schools that they are not allowed to publish any pictures of my kids. And I appreciate all friends and colleagues that has, perhaps after making fun of me, accepted I do not want to be tagged on their social medias.

    Wrap up

    I strongly believe it is the sum of many people good choices that will help us ensure social medias becomes positive for both us as people as well as for the greater good of society.

    It is probably healthy and I think it will emerge alternatives to some of the dominating platforms with a better human oriented design, perhaps we as user on the other hand need to accept we pay for the service to diminish the need to maximize the time you spend on the platform consuming the advertising.

    One simple thing we could all do is to strive to give towards a smart society (my post the other day) where that concept can be used as framework for how we make sure technology is used to make a better society in general and where we design social media platform with a human oriented design.

    I would appreciate if you share a few lines on your reflection after reading this post, that would be both rewarding and enriching for me. 

     

  • Digitalization is not to think big, Smart Society is

    Digitalization is not to think big, Smart Society is

    Based upon my earlier post – “I dream about the day I no longer have to talk about digitalization” –  I have thought about what I should use instead of Digitalization as a concept.

    After quite some research and good discussions with a few clever friends of mine I have come to some sort of early conclusion ready for sharing.

    In fact the answer is given as digitalization is not the why but the how and actually only the how in some domains and not all dimensions. So what is the general end vision and purpose of digitalization? Well I think it should be to strive towards a  smarter society. Of course people and organisation will make a somewhat different definition of that why. I also realize that  many of the most successful companies in the transforming world have that why defined for a society where the physical and artificial is converging and where the singularity of artificial intelligence is approaching in a ever accelerating pace.

    I have for past month tried “Smart Society” on people where I would normally use digitalization and it actually works well. When people have asked what I mean with it following definition has evolved:

    Definition (preliminary): The smart society is the socio-technical ecosystem in which the physical and virtual dimensions of life converge and were people interaction is mediated by machines to an ever increasing extent

    I have actually already used the Smart Society perspective to kill of Digitalization proposals that does not stand the lackmus test.

    When you start to think about your day-to-day tasks and queries from a “how does this help make society smarter” you will quickly realize it is a quite powerful in all it’s simplicity.

    Early in my thought process I just assumed with all the buzz around  Smartphones, Smart Cities, Smart manufacturing and all the other Smart something  that I would get an overwhelming amount of hits but were amazed that this was not the case. The most concrete I found is a EU sponsored university driven project founded already in 2013 (so as usual some clever people where quite ahead of the rest of us) that have some interesting publications I plan to explore and comment here.

    To transform all this into something easy to remember  just think of digitalization as one piece of the Smart Society puzzle.

    So next step is to start figure out what other dimensions to add to make this a more complete and usable mental model.

     

    Feel free to share your thoughts on what those pieces should be.

     

  • How big impact will AI have on our economy?

    Or is AI a new type of production factor in the economy?

    According to Accenture research we should start to see AI as a new production factor and they have 3 main arguments:

    • AI is neither labor or capital but rather a hybrid between both and as automation is self improving it should not be written off as ordinary automation equipment

    • AI complement and increases the skills and ability of existing workforce and capital rather than being in competition with them

    • AI drives innovation mainly by creating new business models based on new use of existing data

    By applying the new model on a dozen developed countries and comparing a non AI baseline with a AI a few countries come out as AI mature/ready/forefront (US, Finland, Sweden, UK, Netherlands) where AI stands for significant part of the growth already today and could achieve double digit growth of maximizing AI opportunity

    I share the authors view that today’s way of measuring growth has flaws and that we need to find better ways to capture several disruptive technologies do that in the future.

    I think there are some benefits with the proposed model thinking about AI as something that will significantly change society over time.

    Until we achieve the singularity of AI being able to build new AI I think AI will need to operate together with other technological devices (self driving cars for example) and humans. This means the old combination of human and capital works as a decent approximation even if not perfect.

    I would also challenge that AI would not have to be written off over time. An AI that is not maintained, enhanced, given more computing power will decay over time as it would be replaced by better AIs. The AI also drives operational cost even if run in the cloud so there would always be a trade off between that and solving the task by other means.

    With current technology maturity I think AI short term is more about replacing white collars as automation did with blue collar in the past. Many task will be automated or significantly transformed while new (train the AI for example) will be created for the white collars.

    More interesting is where AI more mid term can enable a smarter society and new business models we will start to change society for real. My belief is that AI likely is a key enabler in that change but will not be sufficient in itself. It is only when you combine the AI with sensor data, robots, better integration with humans, 3D printing and a long list of other technologies and trends that will give us the big changes.

    How to measure that change is still out for grabs and the proposed model by Accenture research is probably not the answer even if a good attempt.

    https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-artificial-intelligence-future-growth

  • Our economy 2028 – a prediction by Swedish Radio

    New approach by Swedish radio Ekonomiekot show to predict trends for our economy in 2028

    They glance through AI, wearable, circular economy and trade and try to make a good overall prediction

    In short they concluded  a lot is likely to happen in 10 years and both companies and employment market will have to change

     

    http://sverigesradio.se/sida/avsnitt/1008876?programid=3626

     

  • I dream about the day I no longer have to talk about digitalization

    I dream about the day I no longer have to talk about digitalization

    The foundation of Digitalization started already in late 60´and early 70´and already back then there where forward looking thinkers realizing the profound effect it would have on society over time. But as general with trends the transformation speed is over estimated in the beginning and the effect over time under estimated

    I started to work late 90′ and have ever since worked with how companies can use modern technology to become more competitive. Somewhere around 2000 with the Y2K and dotcom boom some enclaves of people around myself started to talk about digitalization as something separate from that, typically people within marketing and sales discovering how the internet would redefine how they had to work. Steadily and slowly digitalization as a term has spread.

    Google search interest index for Digitalization.png

    Somewhere 2012 I realized I hade to merge what I had been doing for long into the framework of Digitalization to not be perceived as outdated.

    Nowadays Digitalization is used anywhere from newspapers explaining why people lose jobbs to leadership (with a few exceptions) teams trying to figure out how to orient themselves

    When our digital native generations get kids they will probably no longer even consider te difference between a analogue and digital world as they will convert and merge.

    I believe as the effects of Digitalization is spreading across all of the societies domains it will soon become obsolete to talk about the Digitalization as something separate to our everyday life. What organization are not to some extent using modern technologies in their operation? Most consumers expect seamless integration between the web experience and the physical experience

    Out of convenience I  use the term multiple times a day to communicate to others why they have to change and what they need to do. I have it on my Linkedin profile to be searchable, my business unit has it in its name, my current assignment has it as a objective

    My instinct is that we should already today start to think and organize us as that convergence of the real world and digital has already happened. Keeping digitalization as something you do separate, outside the day to day risk to be more of a respirator to the patient rather than actually addressing the challenges that makes many organisation struggling during changing times. There is so much of poor leadership, missing focus on the customer journey, lack of clarity on competitive business models, old school governance and organisations that if you just adress this first, the digitalization will come as a side product.

    I will as of tomorrow do my best to significantly reduce how often I use the word Digitalization and force myself to find other terms instead